CLASSIFIED — TEAM EYES ONLY

EU & Global Coalition

EU Commission, UK AISI, and Allied Nations

Your Role

You represent the world's regulatory superpower — but regulation without capability is just words. You have the EU AI Act, strong institutions, and a coalition of nations that don't want to live in a world dominated by American or Chinese AI. But you have no frontier labs, limited compute, and the two actual players in the AI race view you as either an annoyance or a useful tool. Your power is norms, standards, and the ability to convene. Use it or lose it.

Win Condition

Establish enforceable international AI governance. Maintain economic relevance in the AI economy. Hold your coalition together. Prevent catastrophic outcomes (arms race, misalignment, unilateral dominance).

Your Metrics

Regulatory Authority70

The enforceability and reach of your AI governance framework. Driven by the EU AI Act, international treaties, and standards adoption. If this drops below 40, you're just writing papers.

Economic Relevance40

Your competitiveness in the AI economy. Talent, compute, AI-driven GDP growth. This is your weakest metric and the hardest to improve.

Coalition Strength60

Unity among EU members, UK partnership, and alignment with Japan, South Korea, and other allies. Internal divisions or US/China poaching of members erodes this.

Stability Index65

The probability of avoiding catastrophic outcomes — arms race, conflict, alignment failure. This is the metric that matters for humanity, even if no one wins points for it.

Intelligence Briefing

Information known only to your team

01EU AI Act enforcement is creating real friction with US tech companies. OpenBrain has privately threatened to withdraw from European markets if compliance costs exceed $500M annually. This is likely a bluff — but not certainly.
02Japan, South Korea, and India are privately interested in a 'third way' AI governance framework — neither American laissez-faire nor Chinese state control. You could lead this coalition.
03Both the US and China have approached you with exclusive AI access deals. The US offers frontier model API access in exchange for export control alignment. China offers preferential trade terms and AI infrastructure investment in exchange for opposing US chip restrictions.
04Your EU Chips Act investment ($43B) won't produce competitive domestic fabs for at least 3 years. Until then, you're dependent on US/Taiwan supply chains.
05The UK AI Safety Institute has developed sophisticated model evaluation capabilities. Combined with EU regulatory authority, this is potentially the world's most credible AI safety assessment body.

Assets

+EU AI Act — the world's most comprehensive AI regulation, with real enforcement teeth
+Regulatory credibility — when you set a standard, the world takes note (GDPR precedent)
+Coalition potential — Japan, South Korea, India, and others want an alternative to US/China dominance
+UK AISI — world-class model evaluation and safety testing capability
+Market leverage — 450M consumers, the world's third-largest economy. Companies need access.

Vulnerabilities

-No frontier labs — you can regulate AI but you can't build it. This limits your leverage as capabilities accelerate.
-Compute deficit — your chip investment is 3 years from producing results. You're dependent on others' hardware.
-Internal divisions — 27 EU member states don't always agree. Hungary, Italy, and France have different AI priorities. Unanimity is fragile.
-Speed mismatch — your democratic, multi-stakeholder process takes months. The AI labs move in weeks. By the time you regulate, the landscape has changed.
-Relevance risk — if the US and China cut a bilateral deal, you're frozen out of the most consequential negotiation in history.

Relationships

US Government— NATO ally with friction

You share values and security interests. But your regulation frustrates their labs, and they'd rather cut a bilateral deal with China than include you at the table.

China— Cautious engagement

You don't trust them, but you need them to join any meaningful global framework. Their market access offers are tempting. Their governance promises are not credible.

OpenBrain— Regulated adversary

They view your regulations as a cost center. But they need European market access. This gives you leverage — if you're willing to use it.

Prometheus— Natural ally

You share safety values. They helped design parts of the EU AI Act. A formal partnership could give you credibility on technical safety that you otherwise lack.