CLASSIFIED — TEAM EYES ONLY
CCP Central Leading Group on AI
You are the only power that can credibly challenge American AI dominance. You have centralized authority, a massive talent pool, a willingness to take risks that democracies cannot, and an intelligence apparatus embedded in every major AI lab. But you're behind on compute, dependent on chip imports you can't guarantee, and running out of time.
Achieve compute parity with the US (or find asymmetric alternatives). Secure strategic autonomy — chip independence, talent pipeline, self-sufficiency. Maintain economic growth to preserve domestic legitimacy. Expand global influence through technology partnerships.
How close you are to matching US AI capability. Driven by chip production, algorithmic efficiency, weight theft. At 70+ you've effectively closed the gap.
Your independence from Western technology supply chains. Chip fabs, talent, data, energy. At 80+ you're sanction-proof.
GDP growth, trade health, domestic prosperity. AI displacement hits your manufacturing base differently than the US. Social stability depends on jobs.
BRI partners, tech exports, institutional alternatives to Western-led order. Countries choosing your AI over American AI is a win.
Information known only to your team
They control your chip supply. You have agents in their labs. Neither side wants open conflict but the temperature is rising every quarter.
Their models are what you need. Your agents are inside. A successful weight theft would be the intelligence coup of the century — but getting caught would be catastrophic.
Their safety concerns could be useful to you. If they slow down the US AI program for safety reasons, that narrows the gap without you doing anything.
The EU doesn't want American AI hegemony either. There's a deal to be made: your market access in exchange for their regulatory framework. But trust is low.